India: Jan’26 headline CPI rises to 2.75% as expected on base revision while core CPI dip to 3.4% provides solace; we maintain MPC view of status quo on rates

India: Jan’26 WPI likely clocked the highest in 10 months on sequential gains in commodity prices even as vegetables prices fall

India: Jan’26 CPI likely rose above 2% threshold yet remained lower from last year on moderation in food prices and strengthening gold prices

India: Dec’25 WPI sharply up from last month as expected on broad-based uptick in all segments

India: Dec’25 CPI surprises favourably even as it picked up to 1.33% amid muted CPI ex-gold; all eyes now on base year change impact

India: Dec’25 WPI likely switched back to positive zone on uptick in food prices

India: Dec’25 CPI likely stayed subdued yet rose to 1.66% as food prices defied seasonality and on elevated gold prices

India: Nov’25 CPI recovers as expected from Oct lows yet remains sub 1% and validates Dec rate cut

India: Nov’25 WPI slightly up after making a recent bottom last month but stayed in deflation zone

India: Nov’25 CPI seen inching up from all-time lows hit last month on rise in veggie prices & fading base effects

India: Nov’25 WPI likely took a U-turn from Oct lows yet stayed in deflationary zone

India: Oct’25 WPI in deflationary zone as expected on continued moderation in food prices

India: Oct’25 CPI prints as expected at all-time lows; we see Dec rate cut despite many moving parts

India: Oct’25 WPI likely turned negative again on cooling food prices and favourable base effect

India : Oct’25 CPI seen hitting all-time lows of 0.38% on high base effect and subdued food prices; GST rate cuts led uncertainty poses risks

India: Sept’25 WPI falls more than expected to 0.13% on subdued food prices

India: Sep’25 CPI prints as expected at 1.54% with Oct’25 reading tracking record lows of sub 0.5%

India: Sep’25 CPI seen cooling to 1.49% on falling food prices coupled with high base effect

India: Sept’25 WPI likely stayed positive on cooling food prices getting negated by hardening core WPI

India: August WPI back in positive zone as expected as both core and food WPI hardened

India: August’25 CPI clocks below expectations; Next print seen easing to sub 2% opening door for further rate cut(s)

India: August’25 WPI likely edged up led by base effects and hardening food prices

India: GST led relief in CPI of at least 60bps likely starting Oct’25 even as Aug’25 CPI seen retracing from all-time lows

India: July WPI likely bottomed out at (-)0.6% on (food) base effects & rising core

India: July’25 CPI at eight-year lows may not provide much relief to MPC

India: July’25 WPI likely stayed in deflation mode for 2nd consecutive month

India: July’25 CPI likely crashed to record lows of 1.24% on lagging seasonal trends in food prices

India: June WPI slips into -ve zone, will CPI data also provide -ve surprise?

India: June’25 CPI cools to 6-½ year lows; rate cut(s) contingent on food CPI continuing to surprise favourably

India : June WPI took a U turn after hitting a recent bottom last month

India : June’25 CPI seen at 2.3% on base effects, food prices still in play

India WPI for May’25 falls to 0.39% y-o-y in line with our projection

India: May’25 CPI cools to sub 3% and validates front loading of rate cut

India: WPI seen moderating further to 0.38% in May’25

India: CPI seen at 3% on continued moderation in food prices

India: April WPI cools to 13 month low of 0.85% led by drop in oil prices

India: April CPI slips to ~6 year lows on cooling food prices

India: April’25 CPI likely fell below 3%, lowest since May’19

India: March CPI prints as expected at ~5½ year lows

India: WPI moderates in Mar’25, driven by softening food and fuel prices

India: March’25 CPI seen clocking a 5.5 year low even as IIP slipped

India: WPI moves up in Feb’25, manufacturing is the main driver

India: Macro prints surprise favourably; Feb’25 CPI cools to 3.61% (7-mth low) & Jan’25 IIP rises to 5%

India: CPI seen easing below 4% in Feb’25, IIP to inch-up in Jan’25

India: Jan’25 CPI prints near our below consensus est.; Dec’24 IIP at 3.2%

India: Seasonal veggies drop likely drove crash in Jan’25 CPI to 4.2%

India: WPI pickup in Dec’24 led by non-food sub-segments

Dec’24 CPI takes a breather as expected to 5.2%, trending towards 4% in Q4-FY25

India: Dec’24 CPI seen at 5.2% on seasonal cooling in veggies

India: November WPI cools on slide in food prices

India: Nov’24 CPI likely eased to 5.4% as veggies cooled, Oct’24 IIP rose to 3.7%

India WPI for Oct’24 jumps as expected to 2.4%

Oct CPI at 6.2% in an uncertain world mean rate cuts “later than sooner”

India: Oct'24 CPI likely spiked to 6% threshold, Sept'24 IIP back in +ve Zone

India Sep24 CPI jumps as expected to 5.5% next print tracking higher

India: Sep’24 CPI seen spiking to 5.4% on base effects & food price spurt

India: WPI continues to trend lower

India: Aug’24 CPI inches up; we maintain status quo call in Oct’24 amid divided consensus

India: CPI likely slipped to 5-year lows on base effects, while IIP stagnated

India: July CPI provides +ve surprise; June IIP disappoints

India: WPI cools on base effects and lower commodity prices

India: CPI seen at 3.7% on base effects, IIP slowed to 5.2%

June CPI likely rose beyond 5%, while May IIP stays flat

India: April CPI stays flat as expected; core CPI at record lows

Inflation cools to three-month lows in January 2024

India FY26 GDP growth: A tale of two (strong) halves; we maintain MPC rate cut call

India: Q1FY26 GDP growth ‘front’ loaded, yet ‘back’ward looking & unsustainable

India: Q1-FY26 GDP growth likely retained 7.0% threshold on front-loading effects

Positive growth surprise in Q4FY25; slowdown seen in FY26

India’s GDP growth likely clocked 7.0% in Q4 FY25

Growth normalised in FY25, policy boost favours FY26 outlook

GDP growth likely recovered to 6.2% in Q3FY25

India: Q2FY25 GDP growth shocks : modest recovery seen in H2

GDP growth likely slowed to 6-qtr lows in Q2 FY25

India: Q1-FY25 GDP toes the line, strong GVA growth surprises

Q1 FY25 GDP likely clocked 6.7% (slowest since March 2023)

India FY24 GDP Prints 8.2% as expected

India FY24 GDP prints 8.2% y/y as expected; FY25 seen at 7%+

Q3’ FY24 GDP shocks while GVA toes the line

Growth likely slowed to 6.5% in Q3’ FY24

Dec’25 IIP surges to 26-month high of 7.8% YoY, on broad-based recovery

Nov’25 IIP surges to 25-month high of 6.7% YoY on broad-based recovery

Nov’25 IIP likely to have improved to 4.0% YoY on post-festival production boost

Oct’25 IIP drops sharply to 0.4% on statistical effects, recovery on watch in coming months

Oct’25 IIP likely to have slowed to 2.9% YoY

IIP stays flat in Sep’25 ahead of much awaited GST-led boost in October

Sep’25 IIP likely to have moderated to 3.0% YoY on slower manufacturing growth

IIP likely to have improved to 5.5% YoY in Aug’25 on base effects

July’25 IIP beats expectations at 3.5% yet outlook uncertain

IIP stays weak; slips to 10-month lows in June’25

IIP likely to have improved to 2.2% YoY in Jun’25

India: May’25 IIP slows more than expected; infra/capital goods turn IIP saviours while consumer demand remains a drag

IIP likely to have moderated to 2.4% YoY in May’25

India: IIP YoY growth slows to 2.7% in April’25

IIP likely to have moderated to 1.2% YoY in April’25

India: IIP marginally improves to 3.0% YoY in Mar’25

March’25 IIP likely improved to 4.3% YoY

IIP slowed slightly more than expected to 2.9% in Feb’25

India: August IIP turns negative, signals economic slowdown

India: May CPI eases as expected; April IIP remains steady

India: June CPI rises as expected; May IIP beats estimates

Data previews Jun'24

June CPI likely rose beyond 5%, while May IIP stays flat

Data prints maintain status quo

March IIP slows yet rural demand throws a +ve surprise

India: March CPI cools to sub-5% on record low core CPI

Marginal pickup in IIP in Dec’23 post seasonal drop last month

Jan'26 Trade Deficit widens sharply to $34.68bln, overshooting street estimates on Gold-led import spike; NONG deteriotes

Jan'26 Trade deficit likely widened to $27.1bln amid surge in energy demand, record high gold & metal prices

Dec'25 Trade Deficit widened marginally as expected to $25bln; led by NONG even as Oil & Gold stay flat

Dec'25 Trade Deficit likely stayed near flat to $25.1bln amid surge in Gold prices even as subdued oil prices continue to support

Nov'25 Trade Deficit narrowed to $24.53bln, delivering a positive surprise and reflecting a sharp normalization from the record Oct'25 peak

Data Preview: Trade Deficit Nov'25 - Nov’25 Trade Deficit likely narrowed to $33.7bln on normalization in Gold imports

Oct'25 Trade Deficit surges to record $41.68bln as Imports Hits Historic Highs; Exports Tumble

Data Preview: Trade Deficit Oct'25 - Trade Deficit likely widened to $33.3bln in Oct'25, driven by higher Oil purchases & a probable record in NONG imports

Sep'25 Trade Deficit hits 13-Month high (near record high) at $32.15 Bn - Exports steady, Imports soared to historic highs

Trade Deficit likely widened to $28bln in Sep'25 amid festive Gold rush

Aug'25 Trade Deficit narrowed as expected yet stayed elevated to $26.49bln, despite services surplus at 6-month high

Trade Deficit likely narrowed to $26.1bln yet stayed elevated in Aug'25

Exports Surge but Imports outrun - India's Trade Deficit widens in July 2025.

July-25 trade gap likely widened after sharp correction last month

Trade deficit narrows in Jun'25 led by sharpdrop in NONG imports.

Jun’25 deficit likely improved despite war disruption; India’s diversification paid off

India: FY25 saw improved C/A dynamics while BoP suffered a setback

India: Q4-FY25 saw both C/A and BoP switch to surplus

Trade Deficit narrows in May'25 to $21.88bln primarily led by oil

May'25 trade deficit likely improved post Trump Tariff led spike last month

Trade Deficit in Apr’25 sharply widens to $26.4 bn, highest since Nov’24

Data Preview: Trade Data & WPI April’25

Trade Deficit in Mar’25 sharply widens to $21.5 bn; sharp -ve surprise on imports jump

Data Preview: Trade Data & WPI Mar’25

Trade balance clocks a rare surplus of $4.4bn in Feb’25

Data Preview: Trade & WPI Feb’25

Data Preview: Trade & WPI Jan’25

Trade Data: Dec'24: Trade deficit narrows to $21.94bln led by normalization in gold deficit

Data Preview: Trade Data & WPI Dec’24

Trade deficit shocks to $38bln; we revise FY25 C/A deficit to 1.2% vs 0.9%

Data Preview of Trade Data & WPI Nov'24

Data Preview: Trade and & WPI Oct’24

Oct’24 trade data provided negative surprise; oil plays spoilsport

Trade deficit normalises to $20.8 bn in Sep’24 post August aberration

India: Sep’24 trade dynamics improved while WPI saw food-led uptick

Aug’24 trade deficit shockingly widens to $30bn on spike in gold imports

Data Preview: Trade deficit likely to widen while WPI to moderate in Aug’24

July trade data provided negative surprise; oil price trends on watch

June trade deficit narrows as expected post sharp deterioration in May

May trade data provided negative surprise while outlook is favourable

Trade Data May'24

Data previews_Apr'24

Data previews_Mar'24

Trade Data Jan'24

India: Feb’24 re-clocks C/A surplus

Q4-FY24 clocks first non-crisis C/A surplus in 17 years

April clocked highest monthly trade deficit in 2024

India: Data releases likely to reassert favorable macros

Trade Data Jan24

Union Budget FY27: Focus on “Reforms over Rhetoric”

Final Countdown to Union Budget: Are We in for “Positive” Surprises?

FY’26 Budget: Fiscally Prudent with focus on the 3 D’s – Demand, Deregulation and Development

India: Policy mix of fiscal prudence with demand push while monetary policy does growth heavy lifting

India Budget FY25: A Tale of 3 R’s: Revex, Reform, Rationalisation

India Final Budget 2024-25 : A Fine Balance Likely

Budget FY25_A tale of 3 Cs

India Feb’26 MPC: Status quo policy; prolonged pause on rates signalled

India Feb’26 MPC: We see status quo on rates yet focus remains on liquidity measures

India Dec’25 MPC: Dovish all the way; rate cut & liquidity bazooka delivered with room left open for more easing

India Dec’25 MPC: We maintain rate cut call amid divided consensus; stronger view on durable liquidity assurance by RBI

MPC minutes reveal that rate cut on table yet time was not opportune in Oct'25

Oct’25 RBI MPC: Operation transmission & credit via macro prudential steps preceding another rate cut likely in December

India MPC: We see dovish rate cut; communication more important than policy action

August MPC Minutes: Divide on growth outlook emerges between RBI (cautious) & Govt. (dovish) members

India August MPC: Done “for now”, yet space may open up for cuts later

India MPC: We expect status quo in Aug’25 as ‘bar for further easing is high’

India MPC Minutes: Growth package provides certainty amid uncertainty; neutral stance grants policy flexibility

Post RBI’s policy gift to Banks; focus shifts towards transmission

India: MPC likely to repeat 25bps rate cut in June; terminal rate seen at 5.5%

MPC Minutes: Growth accorded higher priority amid benign inflation outlook

India MPC: Policy decision as expected; stance shift with liquidity assurance a gamechanger

India MPC: Repeat likely of 25bps rate cut; guidance on liquidity key

India Feb’25 MPC: no major surprises; balanced tone with rate cut and liquidity assurance

Feb’25 MPC decision: RBI likely to start with shallow rate cut cycle this week

Dec’24 RBI MPC 50bps CRR cut is a policy signal amid a tough balancing act

India MPC: Status quo likely in December

MPC Minutes: Rising confidence on inflation, yet risks warrant caution

India MPC: Stance shifts to neutral; “unambiguous” inflation focus stays

India MPC nearing the inflexion point yet not there

India August’24 MPC: Hawkish pause; focused on “silent depositor”

RBI August MPC decision: Will this be a non-event?

MPC holds 4:2; We see rate cuts ‘later rather than sooner’

RBI June’24 MPC Preview: Likely a non-event

Why is the MPC cautious despite FY25 CPI projection of 4.5%?

RBI MPC: Rate cuts likely to be ‘later rather than sooner’

RBI MPC preview: Steady as she goes

MPC minutes: Members stay cautious (as) volatile food prices are the “True” core of inflation

RBI MPC Outcome: Status quo as expected; we see rate cuts by August

MPC: Status quo likely on both rates and liquidity